Figure 3. Correct results of the
models
When the
representation of Spanish and the Catalan network are taken into consideration, our
theoretical proposal is able to correctly group 60.1% of classified cases. If we take a
detailed look at the group, we see that, in the first group (exclusively
Catalan-speaking), our theoretical variables proposal predicted 69.2% of cases correctly,
in the second (more Catalan-speaking), it obtained 52.5% correct results, and in the third
(more Spanish-speaking), it correctly grouped 60.9%. Lastly, for the fourth group (only
Spanish-speaking), it obtained 66.7% correct results.
This shows
that the most successful predictions were obtained in the two groups at either extreme,
whereas the least successful were obtained in the middle groups. Analysis of the correct
results of the groups at either extreme reveals that not a single error is made in either
case by classifying pupils in the two groups that are not immediately adjacent. Therefore,
our proposal demarcates the groups well and only makes slight errors.
Another,
similar parallelism is observed in the two central groups: in no case is the wrong group
at the extreme of the other language assigned, i.e. if we are classifying pupils who speak
more Catalan, they are never mistakenly grouped with those who only speak Spanish. Or the
other way round: if we are classifying pupils who speak more Spanish, they are never
assigned the group that only speaks Catalan.
The
best-classified group is that of pupils who only speak Catalan, which is assigned
correctly in 69.2% of cases. The percentage of grouping errors for those who speak more
Catalan is 30.8%. The second best-classified group is that of pupils who only speak
Spanish (66.7% correct results). In this case, the number of pupils classified in the
adjacent group drops: 29.6% of errors. Here, one pupil is assigned (3.7%) to the group of
more Catalan-speaking pupils.
We can
therefore conclude that the percentage of correct results is very high and that the errors
almost always involve adjacent groups, except for one case which jumps a
group.
5.2.3
Predictions of Evolutions of Linguistic Groups
On the basis
of the data that we have obtained, our model can predict the evolution of linguistic
groups by comparing the linguistic group to which speakers belong and that of reference.
We have already confirmed that this prediction is successful with data obtained in
Catalonia in 1993 (when we made proposals for future evolution) and 2000. Our present
prediction can be seen in Figure 4. |